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Conflicts to Watch in 2025: Women, Peace and Security in a More Volatile World 

Women’s rights are increasingly their own battlefield, with many countries imposing greater restrictions on women’s hard-won freedoms. If current trends persist, gender equality won’t be achieved until the 22nd Century. Rates of conflict-related sexual violence have skyrocketed to staggering levels as nearly one-third of countries are grappling with state-based hostilities—the highest number since tracking began in 1946. Harassment of women rights defenders has also increased. States and international organizations also determined genocide—often targeting women through rape and reproductive violence—amidst multiple conflicts.

This list highlights risks or opportunities for women’s status and safety this year in Afghanistan, Chad and the wider Sahel, Haiti, Iran, Israel, Palestine and Lebanon, Libya, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen. 

These insights are drawn from the WPS Conflict Tracker, which monitors and analyzes global armed conflict through a WPS lens. Beginning in February 2025, the tracker will feature two new countries: Chad and Nigeria. To receive monthly updates on the tracker countries, visit the dashboard or subscribe to GIWPS’ listserv.  

 

Afghanistan

The Taliban’s complete erasure of women and girls from public life will lead to increasingly deadly outcomes. 

Afghan women today are experiencing systematic oppression that “should shock the conscience of humanity.” More than 100 Taliban edicts now bar women from virtually all aspects of public life—even forbidding their voices to be heard and shadows to be seen. In 2025, women and girls will continue to face brutal repression, arrest, corporeal punishment, and sexual violence, with new laws set to curtail their few remaining rights. A December 2024 ban on women’s ability to train as nurses and midwives virtually eliminates women’s already-restricted access to healthcare. The ban’s effect will become more apparent this year, with reports already emerging of women and girls dying from a lack of medical services. The Taliban also announced the forced closure of any NGO employing women, further limiting their access to employment and services. Yet, the increasing normalization of relations with the Taliban persists. 

Despite the Taliban’s brutal repression of women and girls, opportunities for advocacy and accountability are on the horizon. These include a possible case in the International Court of Justice, the referral of Afghanistan to the International Criminal Court, and the continued push to formally codify gender apartheid as a crime against humanity. It remains vital for other countries to support these efforts and to recognize and condemn gender apartheid. Women and girls are also bravely forging their own educational opportunities, including underground and online schools, after a near-total ban on girls’ schooling. Tension between broadening international engagement with the Taliban and prioritizing justice for gender persecution will remain a key issue throughout 2025. 

 

Chad and neighboring Sahel countries

Women and girls will be disproportionately impacted by compounding climate and conflict challenges in Chad and the broader region.  

Chadian women are disproportionately vulnerable to and uniquely harmed by negative coping strategies like child marriage, displacement, and food insecurity as a result of severe climate change events and ongoing conflict. Temperatures in the Sahel are increasing at 1.5 times the global average. Boko Haram fighters also remain active near the porous Chad-Nigeria border, while war in neighboring Sudan threatens to spillover. Nearly 90 percent of the 930,000 Sudanese refugees living in Chad are women and children, straining resources for both Chadian and Sudanese women and girls. 

Women are vital to responding to these crises in 2025. A mass information campaign on Chadian women’s rights was reportedly ordered by the current president, who recently won a controversial election. Women-led organizations are also fighting to protect women’s land rights and prevent gender-based violence. Renewing these efforts—as well as promoting women and girls’ access to education and employment—could help ensure women’s voices are heard. 

 

Haiti

Haitian women face dire threats from sexual violence and targeted killings by gangs.

Women in Haiti disproportionately experience—and are even singled out for—killings and sexual abuse amid spiraling gang violence, which risks pushing Haiti closer to state collapse in 2025. Haitian women also continue to suffer displacement, disease, and food insecurity with little access to humanitarian aid or healthcare. Although there are calls to convert the Kenya-led Multi-National Security Support Mission into a UN peacekeeping mission to expand access to resources, this faces Security Council opposition from China and Russia; insufficient support for stabilizing efforts will continue to jeopardize women’s safety this year.   

Long-term security and a democratic transition in the Caribbean country will depend upon the meaningful inclusion of Haitian women in leadership positions—including in the national government—and support for women’s grassroots peacebuilding and relief efforts. The strength of Haiti’s women’s movement, characterized by its diverse perspectives and collaborative approach, remains a vital resource.

 

Iran

Women—despite continued resistance—are on the cusp of even deadlier repression. 

Iranian women are under threat of dramatically worsened repression this year. Although the Woman, Life, Freedom movement sparked widespread protests for reform and the hope for a more democratic future, calls for even harsher gender-based repression persist. Worsening regional instability risks distracting international and even domestic attention away from stricter morality laws and violence against women. 

On December 13, 2024, the “Law on Protecting the Family through the Promotion of the Culture of Chastity and Hijab” was set to take force, yet implementation was suddenly paused. Recently elected President Massoud Pezeshkian stated the bill required further revision and could trigger unrest. This law would implement the death penalty for peaceful protest against compulsory veiling, as well as impose prison sentences, corporeal punishment, travel restrictions, and other harsh measures on women and girls who do not comply with morality laws. The bill’s implementation now looms over the new year. Yet—despite facing arrest, assault, and even execution—Iranian women continue to lead protests and defy morality laws. It is not yet clear whether authorities will respond to women’s continued resistance with an even harsher crackdown in 2025. 

 

Israel, Palestine & Lebanon

Women remain marginalized from decision-making while facing a catastrophic humanitarian toll. 

Women’s voices are vital to negotiations and in planning for a gender-inclusive recovery in the region. Despite Israeli and Palestinian women’s leadership in grassroots peace initiatives, the team that negotiated the January 2025 ceasefire draft agreement between Israel and Hamas was all male. This three-stage agreement—yet to be ratified by the full Israeli cabinet as of publication—includes the release of Israeli female hostages, but lacks any comprehensive gender considerations. Later stages of the agreement still need to be fully negotiated, increasing its precariousness but creating future opportunities for women’s participation. Lebanese women also did not appear to have a meaningful role in recent peace talks despite their vital contributions to peacebuilding at all levels. Amidst these ceasefire agreements, women must have a central role in rebuilding.

Women continue to bear the brunt of these conflicts. In Gaza, a collapsed healthcare infrastructure means there is virtually no capacity for women’s sexual and reproductive care—now exacerbated by Israel’s ban on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East set to take full effect at the end of January. Women are undergoing cesarean deliveries without anesthesia and face worsening maternal risks due to acute food insecurity that risks becoming a famine. At least 46,000 pregnant women in Gaza face crisis levels of hunger as of October 2024.

While the ceasefire in Gaza is a step forward, there have also been calls from within the Israeli government to annex parts of the West Bank and to further expand into the Golan Heights. This move would leave women in these areas at even greater risk of arbitrary imprisonment and sexual violence. 

 

Libya

Dramatic regression in women’s rights and freedoms risks being overshadowed by economic and political progress.

Libyan women’s rights are now backsliding despite the country making progress toward economic stability and achieving a political milestone with the 2024 municipal elections. In December 2024, Libya reintroduced the Public Morality Protection Unit to enforce compulsory veiling of women and girls. Girls over nine will be required to wear a hijab, women must travel with a male guardian, and “inappropriate” behavior between men and women will be outlawed. These steps will not only curtail women’s freedoms in 2025, but their enforcement risks increasing gender-based violence against women. This regression coincides with the interim government’s efforts to consolidate power and impose discriminatory values as the nation forges its post-conflict identity.

This growing repression of women risks being overlooked by the international community as the world faces numerous deadly conflicts and mounting political instability. Any economic and political gains in Libya could easily reverse, leaving women even more vulnerable under the new ban. However, women have been instrumental as local negotiators in mediation efforts. The new UN-facilitated Libyan political process must not lose sight of women’s contribution as local negotiators and the importance of women’s meaningful inclusion to sustainable peace.  

 

Myanmar

No clear plan for women’s protection and inclusion in Myanmar’s future as conflict nears a tipping point. 

Despite women’s prominent participation in the pro-democracy movement and in the armed resistance, they continue to have limited roles in decision-making at all levels. Women have historically been underrepresented in past formal peace talks. This oversight persists even though women have demonstrated their ability to build inclusive governance and sustainable peace. After significant gains by allied ethnic armed forces, Myanmar’s junta may begin negotiations with resistance groups and has promised elections in 2025. However, there appears to be no clear plan for women’s inclusion in a future political transition. Women and girls, however, require greater support and guarantees for their future.

Women are facing displacement, trafficking, sexual violence, severe economic hardship, and death in Myanmar. More than 70 percent of refugees fleeing the country are women and children, while an economic crisis triggered by conflict has forced many educated women, including healthcare professionals, into sex work. However, the International Criminal Court issued its first arrest warrant for one of Myanmar’s junta leaders for crimes against humanity, including sexual violence against the Rohingya—a narrow opening to pursue accountability this year. 

 

Nigeria

Women leaders are key to crisis management and economic stability.

Women and girls remain at risk of sexual violence, displacement, and economic precarity driven by extremist violence and separatist and intercommunal tensions. Two-thirds of women in northeastern Nigeria—where Boko Haram is most active—have experienced one or more forms of sexual or gender-based violence. Women and girls face additional challenges, including stigma and ostracization after being kidnapped into armed groups. Nigerian women are more likely than men to suffer from extreme poverty, including mounting food insecurity, as they face the worst economic crisis in a generation. 

Yet, despite women comprising less than 3 percent of Nigeria’s Senate and less than 4 percent of its House, a strong network of women civil society leaders and increasing recognition and accountability for gender-based violence present openings for progress this year. Barriers to women’s full political participation, including harassment, cyberbullying, and even violence, must be addressed. Nigerian women are also vital to resolving the current economic crisis. Women own 40 percent of micro, small, and medium enterprises and hold nearly 60 percent of senior and middle management roles. Fully realizing women’s potential would require overcoming policy and legal barriers and strengthening their access to education, financing, and security—challenges that persist this year. 

 

Sudan

Women and girls face genocidal violence and dire humanitarian needs as global attention wanes.  

Sudanese women enter 2025 facing brutal violence, the world’s worst displacement crisis, expanding famine conditions, and widespread sexual violence. Women and girls experience unique challenges, including an inability to access aid and stigma following rape, in what’s been called “one of the world’s deadliest wars.” In Darfur, massacres and sexual violence by the Rapid Support Forces have been deemed genocide. Despite the enormous scale of violence against them, Sudanese women must now contend with growing international apathy and increasingly strained resources. The threat of total state collapse also looms, an outcome which would dramatically reduce aid access—upon which women and girls disproportionately rely—and create a haven for armed and extremist groups who target women for violence.

Women remain on the frontlines of responding to this crisis despite being marginalized from past peace talks. Any effort to resume talks in 2025 must prioritize the voices and needs of Sudan’s women leaders; such inclusion can build from the recommendations developed during 2024 convenings. Women have called for justice, including for sexual and gender-based violations, as well as for a ceasefire. Several cases—including an ongoing ICC investigation into genocide in Darfur—could advance recognition and accountability this year. Increasing investment in women-led efforts to document and respond to conflict provides an opportunity to overcome access barriers and build local capacity.  

 

Syria

Women have new opportunities for greater political participation despite risks of increased repression and violence.

Syrian women’s wellbeing and rights, particularly in remote areas more vulnerable to extremist control, are directly threatened by security challenges in this transitional time. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now de facto governing the country, has Al-Qaeda and al-Nusra roots, raising ongoing concerns about the status and safety of women and members of minority groups. Despite HTS promising to protect all Syrians’ rights, unconfirmed reports are emerging of attacks on women for being in public with men they are not related to, as well as against members of the Alawite minority group. 

Yet, the political transition also presents an opportunity to increase women’s participation and to recognize and redress the significant harms suffered by women during the civil war and dictatorship. Women are leading efforts to locate and document victims of the Assad regime. Survivors of torture and imprisonment—as well as their families—will require psychosocial support, including services tailored for men and boys and LGBTQ+ individuals who suffered sexual torture. The Syrian Women’s Political Movement also announced a feminist political track for peacebuilding and a strategic vision for Syria—a roadmap for HTS to honor its promises for inclusive governance. 


Ukraine

Resourcing women’s organizations and elevating women peacebuilders will be key as war enters a pivotal phase.

Ukrainian women’s security now hangs in the balance. Current approaches for a ceasefire—including one by President Trump’s recently appointed Ukraine peace envoy—do not include accountability mechanisms for Russian crimes nor a gender component, raising serious concerns for the safety of Ukrainian women and girls. The possibility of leaving more than 20 percent of Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation would put Ukrainian women and girls in these territories at dire risk and signal impunity for Russian violations, including brutal sexual violence. A settlement without proper security guarantees for Ukraine could embolden Russia and other authoritarian leaders, further weakening democratic institutions and women’s rights across the region. 

Women have expanded their roles in combat, leadership, labor, and frontline response, yet local women’s organizations receive just 1 percent of Ukraine’s $30 billion in humanitarian aid. Ukrainian women and women’s organizations continue leading efforts to document abuses, including sexual violence—one of the predominant methods of warfare by Russian forces—and support survivors. Supporting these organizations as well as guaranteeing women’s full participation in peace talks and recovery planning, including through capacity building for women leaders, is integral to Ukraine’s uncertain future in 2025.

 

Yemen

Women’s repression—including movement restrictions—pose dangers and difficulties as conflict enters a decisive phase.

Yemini women’s wellbeing faces a tipping point in 2025, a decade into the conflict. Women and girls are often most exposed to impacts of resource scarcity — exacerbated by climate change — and fleeing natural disasters. The requirement that Yemini women travel with a male guardian continues to increase the difficulty and danger associated with both. 

A peace deal—which seemed close at the start of 2024—is not yet fully off the table. Despite women’s involvement in past negotiations and the creation of a 30 percent quota for their political involvement during the National Dialogue Conference, there is no clear plan for women’s participation in future talks nor indication their needs will be prioritized in a future peace deal. This is particularly concerning given the repressive morality laws that Yemeni women face, particularly in Houthi-held territories. Yemeni women must be included in any further negotiations this year. 

 

The post Conflicts to Watch in 2025: Women, Peace and Security in a More Volatile World  appeared first on GIWPS.


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